If you bought Chris Anderson‘s Long Tail argument, you may want to read Anita Elberse‘s demolition job in the Harvard Business Review.

Hit products remain dominant, even among consumers who venture deep into the tail. Hit products are also liked better than obscure products.

It is a myth that obscure books, films, and songs are treasured. What consumers buy in internet channels is much the same as what they have always bought…

For Chris Anderson, the strategic implications of the digital environment seem clear. “The companies that will prosper,” he declares, “will be those that switch out of lowest-common-denominator mode and figure out how to address niches.”

But my research indicates otherwise. Although no one disputes the lengthening of the tail (clearly, more obscure products are being made available for purchase every day), the tail is likely to be extremely flat and populated by titles that are mostly a diversion for consumers whose appetite for true blockbusters continues to grow.

It is therefore highly disputable that much money can be made in the tail. In sales of both videos and recorded music — in many ways the perfect products to test the long-tail theory — we see that hits are and probably will remain dominant.

That is the reality that should inform retailers as they struggle to offer their customers a satisfying assortment cost-efficiently. And it’s the unavoidable challenge to producers. The companies that will prosper are the ones most capable of capitalizing on individual best sellers.

Anderson’s reply – rather weedy – here.