Here is Luigi Zingales, an economist with a plan:
Suppose that you bought a house in California in 2006. You paid $400,000 with only 5% down. Unfortunately, during the last two years the value of your house dropped by 30%; thus, you now find yourself with a mortgage worth $380,000 and a house worth $280,000. Even if you can afford your monthly payment (and you probably cannot), why should you struggle to pay the mortgage when walking away will save you $100,000, more than most people can save in a lifetime?
However, when the homeowner walks away, the mortgage holder does not recover $280,000. The foreclosure process takes some time during which the house is not properly maintained and further deteriorates in value.
The recovery rate in standard mortgage foreclosures (which will not take place in the middle of the worst crisis since the Great Depression) is 50 cents per dollar of the mortgage. I am generous in estimating that under the current conditions it might recover 50 cents per dollar of the appraised value of the house; right now, it is only 37 cents per dollar of the mortgage, which given a house appraised at $280,000 equals only $140,000 for the mortgage holder.
In other words, foreclosing is costly for both the borrower and the lender. The mortgage holder gains only half of what is lost by the homeowners, due to what we economists call underinvestment: the failure to maintain the house.
In the old days, when the mortgage was granted by your local bank, there was a simple solution to this tremendous inefficiency. The bank forgave part of your mortgage;let’s say 30%. This creates a small positive equity value—an incentive—for you to stay. Since you stay and maintain the house, the bank gets its $266,000 dollars of the new debt back, which trumps the $140,000 that it was getting through foreclosure.
Unfortunately, this win-win solution is not possible today. Your mortgage has been sold and repackaged in an asset-backed security pool and sold in tranches with different priorities. There is disagreement on who has the right to renegotiate and renegotiation might require the agreement of at least 60% of the debt holders, who are spread throughout the globe. This is not going to happen.
Furthermore, unlike your local bank, distant debt holders cannot tell whether you are a good borrower who has been unlucky or somebody just trying to take advantage of the lender. In doubt, they do not want to cut the debt for fear that even the homeowners who can easily afford their mortgage will ask for debt forgiveness.
Here is where government intervention can help. Instead of pouring money to either side, the government should provide a standardized way to re-negotiate; one that is both fast and fair. Here is my proposal.
Congress should pass a law that makes a re-contracting option available to all homeowners living in a zip code where house prices dropped by more than 20% since the time they bought their property. Why? Because there is no reason to give a break to inhabitants of Charlotte, North Carolina, where house prices have risen 4% in the last two years.
One response to “Understanding the financial crisis”
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