Off topic: estimating the cost of World War IV


Having recently heard Norman Podhoretz promoting his rather ludicrous World War IV tome, it’s a pleasure to turn to someone unafraid of entertaining the troops, Marketwatch columnist, Paul Farrell.

[L]et’s estimate the potential economic costs of the coming WWIV:

1. Demographics

Economic costs can be estimated by extrapolating from demographics. We’re already fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have a combined population of 60 million. Generals are already telling us our volunteer military and equipment are near “broken,” strategically unable to engage on new fronts.

Still we are planning to attack Iran, a country of 65 million, at a time when its neighbour Pakistan, a country of 165 million, is rapidly destabilizing and it is a country that already has nuclear weapons and also offers sanctuary to Taliban and al-Qaeda extremists. Others will be stirred to retaliate. So we could increase our exposure to hostile enemies by four times.

2. Geography

In addition to demographics, land mass is another factor in estimating military costs: Remember, we haven’t been able to find Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan for four years, even with a $50 million “dead or alive” bounty. And today our so-called ally Pakistan is offering him and his warriors a safe haven.

If we attack Iran our battlefield terrain exposure increases by 635,000 square miles on top of the 420,000 square miles in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, plus another potential 340,000 square miles in Pakistan and others. The geography alone could overwhelm a military already stretched thin. The costs will go through the roof. A military draft will be essential.

Will they listen?

I have no illusions that our political leaders will give more than lip service to any estimates of war costs. After all, they are already ignoring estimates from the CBO as well as the Government Accountability Office, driven by an ideology convinced that “deficits don’t matter.”

But living in denial can’t erase the fact that the added debt of WWIV will have an enormous impact on America. And it will certainly have a profound personal impact on every single investor, far, far more damaging than any failure to save “enough” for retirement. Or failure to pick the right index funds. Or failure to set up a diversified portfolio.

Why? Because the cost of WWIV will overwhelm all those other mistakes we make as individual investors.

So what can you personally expect as your cost from WWIV? We know an attack on Iran will also trigger widespread insurgencies in other Muslim nations siding with Iran, likely Pakistan and Syria.

We can also expect Russia and China to increase their indirect support to insurgents, to keep the war fires burning and keep the price of oil high, further undermining America’s credibility and diminishing the value of the dollar as a reserve currency.

The added debt costs of World War IV seem obvious: An estimated cost of $10 trillion to fight for a decade is not unreasonable, four times the cost of the current fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and the global “wars on terror.”

And personally that will add roughly $32,000 more debt for every American – which is more than half what the average American currently has saved for retirement.


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